Accuracy
How often our verdicts matched real offers
We test the method on a year it hasn’t seen: we work out each verdict from the years before it that we have figures for (up to five), then check what actually happened. Our target is that at least 9 in 10 “Likely” results were offered a place and at least 9 in 10 “Unlikely” results were not.
Read how the back-test works.
Wandsworth: 2026 back-test
Verdicts worked out from 2022 to 2025 figures (4 years), checked against 2026 offers, for 2,000 sample home locations and every school within 1.86 miles. We assumed no sibling or faith priority. The sample homes are the centre points of postcodes, one per postcode, which is less precise than exact addresses.
Draft data This back-test used figures that a person has not yet checked against the source.
- “Likely” results offered a place
- 21,285 of 21,352
- Target: at least 9 in 10
- At schools where places ran out in 2026: 1,230 of 1,297
- “Unlikely” results not offered a place
- 14,311 of 15,520
- Target: at least 9 in 10
- At schools where places ran out in 2026: 14,311 of 14,785
- “Borderline” results
- 3,295 in, 4,152 out
- Borderline should split both ways
- Meets both targets
- Yes
- 44,319 home-and-school pairs scored
Most home-and-school pairs are at schools that offered a place to everyone who applied in 2026, where any verdict is right. The second line under each figure counts only schools where places ran out, which is the harder test.
Schools that missed a target
All Saints' CofE Primary School, Putney, Belleville Wix Academy, Chesterton Primary School, Floreat Wandsworth Primary School, Hotham Primary School, Ravenstone Primary School and Tooting Primary School. A person is checking these schools’ figures and rules.
| School | Likely: offered | Unlikely: not offered | Borderline: in / out | Meets targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARK John Archer Primary Academy | 1251 of 1251 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| Albemarle Primary School | 907 of 907 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| Alderbrook Primary School | 1078 of 1078 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| All Saints' CofE Primary School, Putney | 89 of 89 | 0 of 458 | 79 / 0 | No |
| Allfarthing Primary School | 30 of 30 | 1344 of 1344 | 21 / 25 | Yes |
| Anglo Portuguese School of London | 1066 of 1066 | 0 of 0 | 294 / 0 | Yes |
| Beatrix Potter Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Belleville Primary School | 146 of 146 | 959 of 990 | 96 / 0 | Yes |
| Belleville Wix Academy | 31 of 49 | 858 of 858 | 0 / 36 | No |
| Brandlehow Primary School | 62 of 62 | 955 of 955 | 14 / 26 | Yes |
| Chesterton Primary School | 371 of 371 | 0 of 345 | 37 / 0 | No |
| Earlsfield Primary School | 23 of 23 | 1223 of 1223 | 1 / 10 | Yes |
| Falconbrook Primary School | 1041 of 1041 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| Fircroft Primary School | 52 of 54 | 668 of 668 | 0 / 236 | Yes |
| Floreat Wandsworth Primary School | 41 of 46 | 1011 of 1011 | 0 / 277 | No |
| Franciscan Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Furzedown Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Gatton (VA) Primary School | 0 of 0 | 428 of 428 | 49 / 305 | Yes |
| Granard Primary School | 291 of 291 | 0 of 0 | 391 / 0 | Yes |
| Griffin Primary School | 581 of 581 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| Heathmere Primary School | 557 of 557 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| Hillbrook School | 719 of 719 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| Holy Ghost Catholic Primary School | 0 of 0 | 1201 of 1201 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| Honeywell Infant School | 62 of 62 | 1077 of 1168 | 52 / 0 | Yes |
| Hotham Primary School | 146 of 167 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 641 | No |
| John Burns Primary School | 820 of 820 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| Mosaic Jewish Primary School | 529 of 529 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| Our Lady Queen of Heaven RC School | 0 of 0 | 563 of 563 | 0 / 291 | Yes |
| Our Lady of Victories Catholic Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Penwortham Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Ravenstone Primary School | 151 of 172 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 767 | No |
| Riversdale Primary School | 1078 of 1078 | 0 of 0 | 73 / 0 | Yes |
| Roehampton Church Forest Primary School | 624 of 624 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| Ronald Ross Primary School | 15 of 15 | 785 of 785 | 3 / 105 | Yes |
| Rutherford House School | 49 of 49 | 708 of 708 | 73 / 73 | Yes |
| Sacred Heart Catholic Primary School, Battersea | 966 of 966 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| Sacred Heart Catholic Primary School, Roehampton | 554 of 554 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| Sellincourt Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Shaftesbury Park Primary School | 892 of 892 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| Sheringdale Primary School | 12 of 12 | 1035 of 1035 | 18 / 3 | Yes |
| Smallwood Primary School and Language Unit | 17 of 17 | 806 of 813 | 33 / 0 | Yes |
| Southmead Primary School | 897 of 897 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| St Anselm's Catholic Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| St Boniface RC Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 680 / 0 | Not enough results |
| St Faith's CofE Primary School | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 45 / 1289 | Yes |
| St George's CofE Primary School | 526 of 526 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| St Joseph's Catholic Primary and Nursery School | 1177 of 1177 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| St Mary's CofE Nursery and Primary School | 18 of 18 | 690 of 690 | 11 / 68 | Yes |
| St Mary's RC Voluntary Aided Primary School | 612 of 612 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| St Michael's CofE Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Swaffield School | 145 of 145 | 0 of 0 | 1258 / 0 | Yes |
| The Alton School | 412 of 412 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| Tooting Primary School | 284 of 284 | 0 of 277 | 67 / 0 | No |
| Trinity St Mary's CofE Primary School | 1007 of 1007 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| West Hill Primary School | 1208 of 1208 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| Westbridge Academy | 744 of 744 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
Generated · data version 5b971632636f
Wandsworth: 2025 back-test
Verdicts worked out from 2022 to 2024 figures (3 years), checked against 2025 offers, for 2,000 sample home locations and every school within 1.86 miles. We assumed no sibling or faith priority. The sample homes are the centre points of postcodes, one per postcode, which is less precise than exact addresses.
Draft data This back-test used figures that a person has not yet checked against the source.
- “Likely” results offered a place
- 20,878 of 23,967
- Target: at least 9 in 10
- At schools where places ran out in 2025: 2,693 of 5,782
- “Unlikely” results not offered a place
- 14,042 of 15,006
- Target: at least 9 in 10
- At schools where places ran out in 2025: 14,042 of 14,224
- “Borderline” results
- 983 in, 2,482 out
- Borderline should split both ways
- Meets both targets
- No
- 42,438 home-and-school pairs scored
Most home-and-school pairs are at schools that offered a place to everyone who applied in 2025, where any verdict is right. The second line under each figure counts only schools where places ran out, which is the harder test. This back-test misses a target: where places ran out, fewer than half of the “Likely” results were offered a place. It was worked out from only 3 years of figures, and we publish it so you can judge for yourself.
Schools that missed a target
All Saints' CofE Primary School, Putney, Anglo Portuguese School of London, Belleville Primary School, Belleville Wix Academy, Fircroft Primary School, Floreat Wandsworth Primary School, Gatton (VA) Primary School, Granard Primary School, Hotham Primary School, Our Lady Queen of Heaven RC School, Ravenstone Primary School, Riversdale Primary School, Ronald Ross Primary School, St Faith's CofE Primary School and Tooting Primary School. A person is checking these schools’ figures and rules.
| School | Likely: offered | Unlikely: not offered | Borderline: in / out | Meets targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARK John Archer Primary Academy | 1251 of 1251 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| Albemarle Primary School | 907 of 907 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| Alderbrook Primary School | 1078 of 1078 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| All Saints' CofE Primary School, Putney | 15 of 15 | 458 of 537 | 74 / 0 | No |
| Allfarthing Primary School | 47 of 47 | 1344 of 1344 | 0 / 29 | Yes |
| Anglo Portuguese School of London | 1115 of 1360 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No |
| Beatrix Potter Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Belleville Primary School | 169 of 215 | 990 of 990 | 0 / 27 | No |
| Belleville Wix Academy | 57 of 66 | 858 of 858 | 0 / 19 | No |
| Brandlehow Primary School | 45 of 45 | 955 of 995 | 17 / 0 | Yes |
| Chesterton Primary School | 390 of 390 | 345 of 345 | 3 / 15 | Yes |
| Earlsfield Primary School | 6 of 6 | 1223 of 1234 | 17 / 0 | Yes |
| Falconbrook Primary School | 1041 of 1041 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| Fircroft Primary School | 82 of 253 | 668 of 668 | 0 / 37 | No |
| Floreat Wandsworth Primary School | 57 of 291 | 1011 of 1011 | 0 / 32 | No |
| Franciscan Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Furzedown Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Gatton (VA) Primary School | 0 of 26 | 428 of 428 | 0 / 328 | No |
| Granard Primary School | 95 of 95 | 0 of 365 | 222 / 0 | No |
| Griffin Primary School | 581 of 581 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| Heathmere Primary School | 557 of 557 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| Hillbrook School | 455 of 455 | 0 of 0 | 264 / 0 | Yes |
| Holy Ghost Catholic Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Honeywell Infant School | 48 of 48 | 1168 of 1220 | 14 / 0 | Yes |
| Hotham Primary School | 186 of 371 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 437 | No |
| John Burns Primary School | 820 of 820 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| Mosaic Jewish Primary School | 529 of 529 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| Our Lady Queen of Heaven RC School | 0 of 22 | 563 of 563 | 0 / 269 | No |
| Our Lady of Victories Catholic Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Penwortham Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Ravenstone Primary School | 188 of 939 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No |
| Riversdale Primary School | 1027 of 1027 | 0 of 73 | 51 / 0 | No |
| Roehampton Church Forest Primary School | 624 of 624 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| Ronald Ross Primary School | 25 of 100 | 785 of 785 | 0 / 23 | No |
| Rutherford House School | 49 of 49 | 708 of 708 | 27 / 119 | Yes |
| Sacred Heart Catholic Primary School, Battersea | 966 of 966 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| Sacred Heart Catholic Primary School, Roehampton | 554 of 554 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| Sellincourt Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Shaftesbury Park Primary School | 892 of 892 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| Sheringdale Primary School | 24 of 25 | 1035 of 1035 | 0 / 8 | Yes |
| Smallwood Primary School and Language Unit | 17 of 17 | 813 of 813 | 23 / 10 | Yes |
| Southmead Primary School | 897 of 897 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| St Anselm's Catholic Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| St Boniface RC Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| St Faith's CofE Primary School | 14 of 1338 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | No |
| St George's CofE Primary School | 526 of 526 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| St Joseph's Catholic Primary and Nursery School | 1177 of 1177 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| St Mary's CofE Nursery and Primary School | 14 of 14 | 690 of 690 | 15 / 68 | Yes |
| St Mary's RC Voluntary Aided Primary School | 612 of 612 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| St Michael's CofE Primary School | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Not enough results |
| Swaffield School | 145 of 145 | 0 of 0 | 197 / 1061 | Yes |
| The Alton School | 412 of 412 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| Tooting Primary School | 225 of 225 | 0 of 344 | 59 / 0 | No |
| Trinity St Mary's CofE Primary School | 1007 of 1007 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| West Hill Primary School | 1208 of 1208 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
| Westbridge Academy | 744 of 744 | 0 of 0 | 0 / 0 | Yes |
Generated · data version 5b971632636f