How Offer Odds works: our method for Reception cut-offs

Where the figures come from

Every cut-off, admission rule and school fact comes from a council or school publication: allocation reports, admission arrangements and Freedom of Information replies. Each figure is stored with a link to its source and the page it came from, and every school page lists its sources.

A person checks every figure against its source before it is treated as verified. Figures that haven’t been checked yet are only shown with a visible “draft data” banner.

Step 1: how far you are from the school

We measure distance the way the council does, and nothing else.

Straight line: many London councils measure a straight line from your home’s address point to the school’s measuring point, on the British National Grid. We measure the same way. Councils don’t always publish their measuring points, so for now we estimate each school’s point from the outline of its site, and we use the centre of your postcode unless address-level lookup is available.
Walking route: where a council measures the shortest walking route, we use a walking route.
Published precision: councils publish cut-offs to a fixed precision. We round your distance the same way before comparing. If you’d be level with the cut-off at that precision, we count you as inside, because the rule is “no further than the last distance offered”.

We use each council’s measuring method, but for now we estimate the point on each school site that the council measures to, so our distances can differ slightly from the council’s. Close calls are treated as borderline for this reason.

Where a council publishes distances in metres, we show its figure first, then miles to two decimal places, for example “1,071 m (0.67 miles)”. Otherwise we show miles to two decimal places.

How Wandsworth measures distance

Wandsworth Council measures a straight line from your home’s address point to the centre of the school site, and publishes distances to the nearest whole metre. Ties are broken at random.

Close calls: in Wandsworth, a margin of 75 metres (0.05 miles) or less in either of the latest two years counts as borderline.

Source: Wandsworth Council: proposed admissions policy for community primary schools (without priority areas) 2027-28.

Step 2: which priority group you’d apply under

Each school ranks applicants by its oversubscription criteria: looked-after children first, then usually medical or social need, siblings and so on, with distance last. For each year, we find the highest-ranked criterion you meet:

Siblings: if you tell us a brother or sister will be at the school, and the school gives siblings priority.
Faith: at a faith school, if you tell us which of its faith categories you meet.
Otherwise, distance: the general criterion everyone else is admitted under. At faith schools with “open” or “community” places, those places are the general criterion.

We never assume you qualify for looked-after, medical or social need, or children-of-staff priority. Looked-after and previously looked-after children, and children with a medical or social need the council accepts, get top priority. We don't model these, so check the council's guidance if either applies to you.

If a school’s rules for a particular year aren’t in our data, we use the most recent earlier year’s rules, or failing that the earliest year we have, and say so.

Step 3: replaying each year

For each past year we compare you with the point where places ran out: the last criterion reached and, within it, the last distance offered.

Every applicant was offered a place: you’re in.
Places ran out at a lower-priority group than yours: you’re in.
Places ran out at a higher-priority group than yours (for example, partway through siblings, and you don’t have one): you’re out.
Places ran out in your own group: you’re in if you live no further away than the last distance offered, otherwise out. We show the gap, for example “2026: cut-off 0.42 miles. You’d have been 0.07 miles inside.”
No usable figure for that year: the year isn’t counted either way, and we tell you which years these are.

Where applicants live the same distance away (for example, flats in one building), the council breaks the tie, usually by random allocation. We tell you when this happens.

Step 4: Likely, Borderline or Unlikely

We need at least three years with usable figures before judging. Otherwise the result is “Not enough data to judge”.

Likely: You’d have got a place in every year we can check, or every year but one; you’d have got a place in both of the two most recent years; and in neither of those two years were you within the borough’s borderline margin of the cut-off.
Borderline: Everything in between, including very close calls in the latest two years.
Unlikely: You’d have got a place in one of those years at most.
Rules not yet supported: This school's admission rules use a priority area or parish, which we don't model yet. We can’t yet check whether an address is inside a drawn catchment area, so we don’t judge these schools.

Why both of the two most recent years? A simpler rule would allow the one missed year to be the second most recent. That rule has an odd effect: moving closer to a school could turn Likely into Borderline. Our rule never does this. Living closer, or having a sibling at the school, can never make a result worse. It is also the more cautious choice.

The “less predictable” tag

Some schools swing a lot from year to year. We tag a school Less predictable, with a one-line reason, when:

the distance cut-off has varied by more than four-tenths of its typical (median) value across the years, or
the share of places going to siblings has swung by more than 20 places in every 100 between years.

The tag doesn’t change the verdict. It tells you to treat the history with more caution.

When a school changes

More or fewer places: if a school’s number of Reception places changed by one-tenth or more between years, the years before the change are marked less comparable. They still count, but we point them out.
Mergers, new schools and changes of status: we only use years from the change onwards, and the headline says so.

Your list of schools

London councils use an equal-preference system. You can name up to 6 schools, and each one considers your application under its own admission rules without knowing where you ranked it. If more than one school could offer you a place, you're offered the one you ranked highest. So ranking a school higher never harms your chances at the others: list schools in your true order of preference, and include at least one you'd be likely to be offered.

When you build a list, we warn you if none of the schools on it is rated Likely, suggest the nearest Likely schools that aren’t on it, and point out schools we can’t judge.

How we word results

We show history: “would have got a place in 4 of the last 5 years”.
We never show a percentage, and never call a school a sure thing. The council makes every offer.
Each year is explained in a sentence, for example “2026: cut-off 0.42 miles. You’d have been 0.07 miles inside.”

How we check our own accuracy

Before launch, and whenever new figures arrive, we test the method on a year we already know the answer to. We take a sample of real home locations across the borough and, for each school within 1.86 miles, work out the verdict using only the five years before the test year, assuming no sibling or faith priority. Then we check what actually happened that year.

Our target is that at least 9 in 10 “Likely” results were offered a place and at least 9 in 10 “Unlikely” results were not. Schools that miss are listed so a person can check their figures. See the accuracy report.

Limitations

Please read these before relying on a result.

The past isn’t a promise. Cut-offs move every year with the number of applicants and siblings, new housing, and nearby schools opening, closing or changing size.
Siblings vary a lot. In a year with many siblings, fewer places are left for everyone else, and the distance cut-off shrinks.
The council’s measurement is final. Its system can differ slightly from ours, for example because of the exact address point it holds for your home.
Approximate locations. If we only know your postcode, we use the centre of the postcode and mark the result as approximate.
What we don’t model: looked-after children, medical or social need, children of staff, catchment areas, late applications, waiting lists, places offered after offer day and appeals.
Rules change. If a school changes its admission rules for next year, past years may be a poor guide.
Data errors. Sources can contain mistakes. If you spot one, email hello@offerodds.limecreations.co.uk and we’ll correct it.

Always read the council’s admissions guidance and each school’s admission arrangements before you apply.

See the figures: Wandsworth primary schools.